Statistics Canada came out with their first production estimates of the 2017 Canadian crop on Thursday, Aug. 31. For once, they weren’t bearish! 13,300 Canadian farmers were surveyed between July 19th and August 1st on their acres, yield and total production. However, while the numbers below are considered bullish, there has certainly been some healthy rains that have fallen since then, especially in Western Canada where most grain is produced in the Great White North.
Total wheat production in Canada is slated to hit 25.5 million tonnes off an average national yield of 42.5 bushels per acre. Last year, average yields were 53.7, while the 5-year average is 48. Total Canadian wheat output is also 17% below the 5-year average. In Manitoba specifically, average wheat yields of 49.2 bushels per acre are forecasted for a total production of 3.61 million tonnes. Those numbers are roughly 14% and 15% below the 5-year average, respectively. After knowing your cost of production, knowing the quality of your wheat is the most important thing when marketing it. Get your grain tests ordered from any and all testing companies at GrainTests.com.
On canola, national Canadian production is pegged at 18.2 million tonnes off an average national yield of 34.1 bushels per acre. Comparably, over the past 5 years, Canadian yields have averaged nearly 36 bushels per acre and production’s mean has been 17.36 million tonnes. Manitoba canola yields are expected to average 37.6 bushels per acre, matching last year and 6% above the 5-year average of 35.6 bushels per acre. This year’s crop in Manitoba looks to hit 2.78 million tonnes, roughly 6% above both last year’s crop and that of the 5-year average. We think filling new crop contracts is a priority before looking out into late October for our next likely sale.
Soybeans continue to be a acreage highlight in Manitoba (but you already knew that). What you probably didn’t know that the average farmer’s soybean yields in the Keystone province are expected to be nearly 36 bushels an acre. Last year it was almost 42 while the 5-year average is 37. Total soybean production in Manitoba pegged at 2.25 million tonnes. That’s a 27% improvement over last year’s harvest and 84% higher than the 5-year average. Nationally, total Canadian soybean production should top 7.74 million tonnes, which is 20% and 32% better than the 2016 crop and the 5-year average respectively. Given the size of the US crop, our next sale will be based on some better basis or a rally on the futures or USD-CAD exchange.
Rounding out the main crops, Canadian barley production is forecasted by StatsCan at 7.2 million tonnes. That’s 18% below last year and 15% below the 5-year average. In Manitoba, only about 400,000 MT will get taken off this year, a 25% decline from last year and nearly 30% lower than the 5-year average. From a yield perspective, Manitoba barley should average 70.8 bushels per acre this year, versus last year’s 72.7 and the 5-year average of 75. The national barley average this year should be about 63.
For corn, national average yield is estimated by StatsCan is at 153.3 bushels per acre while in Manitoba it’s estimated to be 124.6. Last year it was 140.5 in Manitoba and 159.6 nationally, while the 5-year average in Manitoba, it’s 123.3 while across Canada its 155. Total corn production in Manitoba will top 1.28 million tonnes (10% above last year, 37% above the 5-year average). On oats, Manitoba should take off an average 100-bushel per acre crop this year, above the national average of 89.5. From a productions standpoint, this means 746,400 MT of oats coming off in Manitoba, a 36% jump over last year and 30% higher than the 5-year average. Ultimately, this report was neutral-to-bearish for both corn and oats and the market has been pricing in the bigger crops since the start of August.
Brennan Turner President & CEO | FarmLead.com
Brennan Turner is originally from Foam Lake, SK, where his family started farming the land in the 1920s. After completing his degree in economics from Yale University and then playing some pro hockey, Mr. Turner spent some time working in finance before starting FarmLead.com, a risk-free, transparent online and mobile grain marketplace (app available) that has moved almost 400,000 MT in the last 2.5 years. His weekly column is a summary of his free, daily market note, the FarmLead Breakfast Brief. He can be reached via email (firstname.lastname@example.org) or phone (1-855-332-7653).